Global Food System More Resilient to Super El Nino Due to Farm Gains and Inventories

The global food system is better positioned to withstand this year's super El Nino than similar past events due to near record inventories, technological advances, and the rise of key exporters like Brazil and Russia. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and various analysts, world farm production has outpaced consumption and population growth since the 1980s. This resilience is driven by higher yielding crop varieties, improved irrigation, greater fertilizer use, and better crop protection for staples such as wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans.

Despite these gains, El Nino has already disrupted planting across Australia, Southeast Asia, and India. Meteorologists warn that the phenomenon may intensify in the fourth quarter and early next year, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record. Current risks include a deficient monsoon season in India and lack of moisture for crops in Thailand and Indonesia. Additionally, shortages of diesel and fertilizer caused by the Iran war add to production risks.

Several factors are expected to cushion the fallout. India holds rice stockpiles equivalent to more than a year of total global exports, while China holds nearly half of the world's ample wheat stocks. Global palm oil stocks are also near historic highs, though Indonesia's biodiesel program may reduce those inventories. These buffers, combined with precision agriculture and drought tolerant seeds, aim to prevent the severe food shortages and inflation seen during the El Nino episodes of 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016.