Israeli Political Landscape Shifts as Election Deadline Approaches

Israel is preparing for national elections on October 27, with political parties facing a September 8 deadline to submit official candidate lists. A recent KAN News poll conducted by the Kantar Institute suggests a highly competitive race. The poll projects the Netanyahu bloc at 52 seats and the opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, at 51 seats. Neither side would hold the 61 seats required for a majority. The entry of a joint party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, projected to win four seats, further complicates coalition possibilities by leaving both major blocs short of a majority. In a suitability poll for prime minister, Gadi Eisenkot led with 38 percent, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu at 35 percent and Naftali Bennett at 32 percent.

Significant shifts are occurring within the Haredi political sector. Degel Hatorah has removed long serving MKs Moshe Gafni and Uri Maklev from its Knesset slate. Yakov Asher is slated to replace Gafni as chairman of Degel Hatorah and head the United Torah Judaism party. Some analysis suggests this move reflects a need to refresh representation or a failure to secure legislation protecting yeshiva students from conscription. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett and Moise Liberman have unveiled their respective election slates. Bennett's B'Yachad list includes former ministers and civil servants, while Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu slate includes former Likud members.

Outlets with a left lean emphasize the potential for Haredi discontent over draft exemptions to upend Netanyahu's prospects and highlight the fragility of the current political system. Center right sources frame the removal of Moshe Gafni as a symbolic end to an era of Haredi power brokering and a changing of the guard. Center sources focus on the tactical unveiling of candidate lists and the general question of whether Netanyahu can be re elected.