Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Second Round Simulation, Quaest Poll Shows
5 sources across 2 countries · Brazil · United Kingdom
Who reported this
- G1
- Folha de S.Paulo
- Estadao
- Gazeta do Povo
- Reuters
What the colours mean
- Left
- Centre-left
- Centre
- Centre-right
- Right
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A new Quaest poll released on Monday, September 7, shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied with 41 percent of intentions of vote in a simulated second round runoff. In the first round scenario, Lula leads with 36 percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 29 percent and writer Augusto Cury at 8 percent. Other candidates in the first round include Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado, both at 3 percent, and Romeu Zema at 2 percent. The poll also notes that 50 percent of Brazilians disapprove of the Lula government, while 43 percent approve.
The survey included scenarios with and without Pablo Marçal, who is currently inelegible but has registered a provisional candidacy. In the scenario including Marçal, he holds 1 percent of the vote. The poll indicates high rejection rates for the two frontrunners, with 55 percent of respondents stating they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro and 53 percent saying the same for Lula.
Center leaning outlets frame the rise of Augusto Cury as a symptom of voter fatigue with the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro. These sources cite political scientists who suggest Cury represents a volatile segment of the electorate that rejects traditional parties. Center right outlets focus on the numerical tie between the two main candidates and the specific disapproval ratings of the current government. Center left outlets emphasize the detailed breakdown of the data across various demographics and the specific margins of error for each candidate.
How each side framed it
- Centre-left
- Presented the data as a comprehensive breakdown of voting intentions across different social and regional segments.
- Centre
- Framed the results as a sign of voter exhaustion with political polarization and the rise of a third-party alternative.
- Centre-right
- Focused on the statistical tie in the runoff and the high disapproval rating of the Lula administration.
Sources
- Centre-right Estadao: Quaest: 50% disapprove of the Lula government and 43% approve, survey points
- Centre-right Estadao: Quaest: Lula and Flávio tie with 41% in the second round; Cury goes from 10% to 8% in the first
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Rise of Cury reflects wear with Lula and Flávio, but lack of proposals is a hindrance, specialists say
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Quaest: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are numerically tied in a 2nd round scenario
- Centre-left G1: Quaest releases presidential election poll; see the numbers
- Centre-left G1: Quaest 1st round: see voting intention by region, gender, age, political identification, color and religion in the scenario without Pablo Marçal
- Centre-left G1: Quaest 1st round: see voting intention by region, gender, age, political identification, color and religion in the scenario with Pablo Marçal
- Centre-right Gazeta do Povo: What the new Quaest poll for president shows
- Centre Reuters: Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro tied in Brazil's election runoff, Quaest poll shows - Reuters
80% of the statements in this article were traced back to the source articles listed above.