New Poll Shows Lula Leading 2026 Presidential Race Amid Regional Gubernatorial Campaigns

A new CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the 2026 presidential race with 40.5 percent of intentions in a stimulated scenario. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro follows in second place with 30.4 percent. In a simulated second round runoff, Lula is projected to defeat Flávio Bolsonaro 47.3 percent to 40 percent. The poll also shows high rejection rates for both candidates, with Flávio at 44.2 percent and Lula at 41.1 percent. The survey interviewed 2,002 people between September 9 and 13, 2026, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Simultaneously, several states are conducting gubernatorial campaigns. In Pará, candidates Hana Ghassan and Dr. Daniel are technically tied according to a Genial/Quaest poll. The race in Pará is characterized by promises to the agribusiness sector and a strategic effort to attract voters from the south and southeast of the state. In other regions, various media outlets are conducting interviews with gubernatorial candidates. These include candidates in Alagoas, Amapá, Rio de Janeiro, the Federal District, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso do Sul.

In legal news, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has defended himself against a Federal Police report regarding his relationship with banker Daniel Vorcaro. Moraes claims the report was produced with the help of foreign authorities in an attempt to interfere in the 2026 Brazilian elections. He noted that he was previously sanctioned by the Donald Trump administration under the Magnitsky Act from July 30, 2025, until December 12, 2025, when the sanctions were removed.