Nexus/BTG Pactual Poll Shows Technical Tie Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for 2026

A new Nexus/BTG Pactual poll indicates a technical tie between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in simulated second round scenarios for the 2026 presidential election. In one simulation, Lula holds a slight numerical lead with 47 percent of the vote compared to 46 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro, though this remains within the two percent margin of error. In the stimulated first round scenario without Pablo Marçal, Lula leads with 42 percent while Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 37 percent. In a spontaneous scenario, Lula was cited by 40 percent of respondents and Flávio Bolsonaro by 34 percent.

Marcelo Tokarski, CEO of Nexus, stated that an institutional crisis involving the Supreme Federal Court (STF) has deepened political polarization and strengthened convictions on both sides rather than significantly shifting voting intentions. He noted that the so called third way is losing strength, with candidate Augusto Cury seeing his support drop from 11 percent in a previous survey to 7 percent in the most recent data. Tokarski suggested that a first round victory is unlikely, making a second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro highly probable.

Additional data reveals that 19 percent of Brazilians identify as non polarized voters who do not support or reject either main candidate. This group prioritizes health and public security, with 40 percent citing health and 31 percent citing security as their primary concerns. Outlets with a center lean focused on the impact of the STF crisis and the priorities of non polarized voters, while a center right outlet provided a detailed breakdown of the numerical polling data across multiple candidate scenarios.