Quaest Poll Shows Flávio Bolsonaro Numerically Ahead of Lula in Second Round Simulation
7 sources across 3 countries · Brazil · Italy · United States
Who reported this
- G1
- CNN Brasil
- Folha de S.Paulo
- Estadao
- Gazeta do Povo
- ANSA
- Bloomberg
What the colours mean
- Left
- Centre-left
- Centre
- Centre-right
- Right
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A new Quaest poll conducted between September 10 and 13 shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voting intentions and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 40 percent in a simulated second round. While Bolsonaro is numerically ahead for the first time, multiple reports note that the result is a technical tie given the two percentage point margin of error. In a simulated first round, President Lula maintains a lead with 36 percent of intentions compared to 31 percent for Bolsonaro. Other candidates in the first round include Augusto Cury at 7 percent, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado at 4 percent each, and Romeu Zema at 1 percent.
The poll also indicates that both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro share the highest rejection rates, with 55 percent of voters stating they would not vote for either candidate. Regarding government approval, 50 percent of respondents disapprove of Lula's administration, while 43 percent approve. Public concern over corruption rose from 14 percent to 22 percent over a twelve day period, while violence remains the top concern at 31 percent.
Demographic data shows Flávio Bolsonaro performing better among men, evangelicals, and independent voters. Conversely, Lula maintains stronger support among women and Catholics. In a separate measure of public sentiment, 44 percent of respondents say they fear a Lula reelection more, while 42 percent fear the return of the Bolsonaro family to power.
Outlets with a center lean emphasize the historical nature of Bolsonaro appearing numerically ahead in the second round. Center right outlets frame the results as a sign of Lula's unprecedented disapproval for an incumbent seeking reelection and highlight the impact of corruption scandals. Center left outlets focus on the technical tie and the specific demographic breakdowns of fear and preference.
How each side framed it
- Centre-left
- Emphasized the technical tie and detailed the demographic splits in voter fear.
- Centre
- Focused on the numerical shift in the second round and the general polling data.
- Centre-right
- Highlighted the high disapproval ratings of the president and linked them to corruption concerns.
Sources
- Centre ANSA: Elections in Brazil, a new poll shows Lula's recovery
- Centre Bloomberg: Lula and Bolsonaro in Dead Heat Ahead of Brazil Vote, Polls Show
- Centre CNN Brasil: Quaest: 44% fear Lula's reelection more; 42%, return of the Bolsonaro family
- Centre CNN Brasil: Quaest: 50% disapprove of Lula government; 43% approve
- Centre CNN Brasil: Quaest: Lula and Flávio tie with 55% rejection
- Centre CNN Brasil: Quaest: Lula has 36% of voting intentions in the 1st round; Flávio, 31%
- Centre CNN Brasil: Quaest: 41% of Cury voters choose Flávio in the 2nd round; 25%, Lula
- Centre CNN Brasil: Quaest: Flávio appears ahead of Lula for the 1st time in the 2nd round
- Centre-right Estadao: Quaest: Flávio Bolsonaro performs better among independents, men and evangelicals
- Centre-right Estadao: Quaest: Flávio Bolsonaro marks 42% against 40% for Lula in eventual second round
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Quaest: Flávio marks 42%, and Lula, 40% in the 2nd round
- Centre-left G1: Quaest: Concern about corruption rises from 14% to 22% in 12 days
- Centre-left G1: Quaest: 44% fear Lula's reelection more; 42%, the return of the Bolsonaro family
- Centre-right Gazeta do Povo: What the new Quaest poll for president shows
- Centre-right Gazeta do Povo: Disapproval of Lula reaches unprecedented level for reelection attempt, says Quaest
100% of the statements in this article were traced back to the source articles listed above.