Palver Survey Shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Presidential Race
2 sources · Brazil
Who reported this
- CNN Brasil
- Folha de S.Paulo
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- Centre-left
- Centre
- Centre-right
- Right
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A new survey from the Palver institute shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for the first round of the presidential election. In one scenario, both candidates registered 40 percent of the intentions of vote. In another scenario without candidate Pablo Marçal, Lula held 40 percent while Flávio Bolsonaro held 39 percent. Other first round candidates include Renan Santos at 11 percent and Augusto Cury at 4 percent, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Pablo Marçal each recorded 1 percent.
In second round simulations, Flávio Bolsonaro appeared numerically ahead with 46 percent compared to 44 percent for Lula, though this is considered a technical tie. Lula was found to be in a technical tie with Ronaldo Caiado at 43 percent to 40 percent and with Romeu Zema at 43 percent to 42 percent. Lula led against Augusto Cury with 42 percent to 30 percent and against Renan Santos with 43 percent to 31 percent.
Public approval data indicates that 57 percent of respondents disapprove of how President Lula is working, while 42 percent approve. Additionally, 56 percent of the electorate evaluated the government as bad or awful, while 40 percent rated it as great or good. Rejection rates for the leading candidates were high, with 49 percent stating they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro and 54 percent stating the same for Lula.
The survey was conducted online between September 4 and September 7 with 5,000 voters. It has a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error between 2.5 and 3 percentage points. The study was funded by the institute and registered with the Superior Electoral Court.
How each side framed it
- Centre
- The center leaning outlets focused on the statistical technical ties and provided detailed breakdowns of both approval ratings and second round simulations.
Sources
- Centre CNN Brasil: Palver: 57% disapprove of Lula; approval is 42%
- Centre CNN Brasil: Palver: Lula and Flávio tie at 40% in the 1st round
- Centre CNN Brasil: Palver: Lula technically ties with Flávio, Caiado and Zema in the 2nd round
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Palver survey shows Lula and Flávio tied in the first round
100% of the statements in this article were traced back to the source articles listed above.