Quaest to Release Presidential Poll Featuring New Second Round Scenario

The Quaest research institute will release a new presidential election poll on Wednesday, September 2. The survey, commissioned by Globo and O Globo, includes two first round scenarios with 12 and 13 candidates respectively. One of these scenarios includes Pablo Marçal, whose eligibility is currently being decided by the Electoral Court. The poll surveyed 2,004 people aged 16 and older between August 30 and September 1, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95 percent confidence level. The survey is registered with the TSE under number BR-07065/2026.

For the first time, Quaest will simulate a second round matchup between Lula and writer Augusto Cury. Other simulated second round scenarios include Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado. A center right source frames the inclusion of Cury in the second round as a response to his recent growth in other polls and on social media, noting that he has surpassed 10 percent of voting intentions in some recent surveys. A center left source presents the information as a standard update to the poll's scenarios and provides a full list of the candidates included in the first round questionnaire. Datafolha is also expected to release a presidential poll on Thursday, September 3.