Real Time Big Data Polls Reveal Electoral Trends in Rio Grande do Sul
2 sources · Brazil
Who reported this
- UOL
- CNN Brasil
What the colours mean
- Left
- Centre-left
- Centre
- Centre-right
- Right
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Every source for this story reports from Brazil.
A series of polls conducted by Real Time Big Data between August 20 and 24 among 1,600 voters in Rio Grande do Sul shows varying results for gubernatorial, presidential, and senate races. For the governor's race, Juliana Brizola of the PDT leads the first round with 38 percent, followed by Luciano Zucco of the PL with 32 percent and Gabriel Souza of the MDB with 19 percent. In a potential second round between Brizola and Zucco, the two are technically tied with 45 percent and 41 percent respectively. Brizola leads Gabriel Souza 48 percent to 35 percent, while Zucco leads Souza 43 percent to 38 percent.
Regarding the 2026 presidential race among state voters, Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL and President Lula of the PT are technically tied in the first round with 40 percent and 39 percent. However, Flávio Bolsonaro leads in a potential second round with 52 percent compared to 42 percent for Lula. Rejection rates for the two candidates are also similar: 51 percent of respondents would not vote for Lula, while 48 percent would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro.
In the race for the Senate, Marcel Van Hattem of Novo, Manuela D'Avila of PSOL, and Sanderson of the PL are technically tied. Van Hattem holds 20 percent, D'Avila has 19 percent, and Sanderson has 17 percent. Pimenta of the PT and Rigotto of the MDB both follow with 15 percent. All polls cited a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95 percent confidence level.
How each side framed it
- Centre-left
- The center-left lean outlet focused exclusively on the gubernatorial lead of Juliana Brizola.
- Centre
- The center lean outlets provided detailed breakdowns of multiple races and rejection rates without adding interpretive commentary.
Sources
- Centre CNN Brasil: Real Time/RS: Juliana leads 1st round and ties with Zucco in the 2nd for governor
- Centre CNN Brasil: Real Time/RS: Flávio leads 2nd round and ties with Lula in 1st
- Centre CNN Brasil: Real Time/RS: Lula is rejected by 51% of Rio Grande do Sul residents; Flávio, by 48%
- Centre CNN Brasil: Real Time/RS: Van Hattem, Manuela and Sanderson tie in the Senate race
- Centre-left UOL: Real Time Big Data: Juliana Brizola leads for the Government of RS, with 38%
100% of the statements in this article were traced back to the source articles listed above.