Recent Polls Show Tight Race Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for 2026 Presidency

Recent polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election shows a highly competitive race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Results vary by institute. A Gerp poll conducted between August 21 and 25 indicates a technical tie in the first round with Flávio Bolsonaro at 38 percent and Lula at 37 percent. In a simulated second round from the same poll, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 47 percent against 42 percent for Lula. Conversely, an Indexa/Broadcast poll conducted between August 20 and 23 shows Lula leading the first round with 39 percent compared to 34 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro. In a second round simulation by Indexa, Lula leads with 46 percent against 41 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro. A third poll by BTG/Nexus also places Lula ahead in a second round scenario with 46 percent to 45 percent. The Gerp poll reports that Lula has a rejection rate of 49 percent while Flávio Bolsonaro is rejected by 40 percent. Additionally, the Gerp survey finds that 51 percent of voters disapprove of the Lula government while 43 percent approve. Analysis of educational demographics from BTG/Nexus suggests Flávio Bolsonaro has grown among voters with higher education while Lula has gained ground among those with high school education. Regarding right wing unity, a Datafolha survey indicates that a portion of voters for other right wing candidates are not yet declaring support for Flávio Bolsonaro in a second round. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign has stated that this is natural and expects automatic support once he is established as the sole anti Lula candidate.