UN Report Warns Planet Likely to Exceed 1.5°C Warming Threshold

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released a report on Wednesday stating that the planet is likely to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit established by the Paris Agreement. According to the document, this threshold could be crossed before the end of the decade. The most optimistic scenario analyzed by UNEP predicts a temperature peak of 1.8°C before temperatures begin to decline, while other scenarios project warming exceeding 2°C, with some estimates reaching 2.8°C by the end of the century.

To address this, UNEP proposes a strategy known as a peak and decline overshoot trajectory. This plan involves rapid and deep reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases to reach net zero emissions. Following this, the world would need to achieve net negative emissions by removing carbon dioxide from the air through natural methods like reforestation and developing technologies. Inger Andersen, the executive director of UNEP, emphasized that these removal methods must complement emission reductions rather than replace them.

The report warns that there is no safe scenario above 1.5°C. Every fraction of a degree of additional warming increases the risk of extreme events, ecosystem loss, and irreversible tipping points. These include the destabilization of ice sheets, changes to the Amazon rainforest, and alterations to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Without effective adaptation, global food production could drop by up to 14 percent by 2050.

Center left outlets frame the situation as an urgent call for political will and global justice, highlighting that countries with greater historical responsibility for climate change must lead the effort. Center outlets focus on the scientific implications and the specific technical requirements of the overshoot trajectory to return the planet to sustainable levels.