US Bombing Campaign Against Drug Boats Shows No Clear Evidence of Success After One Year

A year after the United States began bombing vessels suspected of transporting drugs in the Caribbean and Pacific, the offensive led by the Donald Trump administration has killed at least 227 people without producing clear signs of a reduction in the supply of illicit substances in the US market. Data from researcher Nabarun Dasgupta of the University of North Carolina shows cocaine prices remained between 60 and 100 US dollars per gram in several cities, a level similar to before the attacks. Customs and Border Protection seizures rose by 2 percent, from 25,686 kg in the ten months before the offensive to 26,166 kg in the ten months following it.

The Trump administration maintains that the strategy is working. The Pentagon told Congress that drug vessel movement fell by 20 percent in the Caribbean and 25 percent in the Eastern Pacific. President Trump claimed a 98.2 percent drop in maritime trafficking and asserted that every destroyed boat saves 25,000 lives, though he provided no evidence for these claims. Conversely, the Washington Office for Latin American Affairs (Wola) reports no signs of cocaine shortages in the US.

US military officials acknowledge that traffickers are adapting. Joseph Humire of the Department of Defense stated that some flow shifted east through Venezuela and Guyana toward Suriname. General Francis Donovan, head of Southern Command, reported increased movement in the Pacific via air traffic and containers. Donovan testified to Congress that attacks on vessels are not the response nor the most effective tool in a narcotics campaign.

Despite these admissions, Washington continues the strategy. After a two month hiatus in August, Southern Command resumed bombing targets in South American waters. This pause followed a Pentagon investigation into whether military personnel followed guidelines. Reports from the Washington Post and The Intercept alleged that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth gave a verbal order to kill everyone on board during the first attack and that survivors were killed in a second bombing, which would violate international law regarding wounded combatants.

The current offensive coincides with expanded regional cooperation. Colombia and Ecuador have authorized joint operations and joined the Americas Shield alliance, which Peru is expected to join. Wola identified two victims of the attacks as Chad Joseph and Rishi Samaroo, citizens of Trinidad and Tobago who worked in fishing, agriculture, and dairy farming.